CAPITOL CALLING
Legislative roles more clear as dust from election settles

Tuesday’s election results can be summed up in one word: unpredictable.

Consider:

● While President-elect Barack Obama swept to a comfortable victory in the Electoral College and in the popular vote, the Illinois senator could not carry Missouri. If the numbers hold up as expected, it’ll be the first time since 1956 that the state chose a presidential candidate who did not win.

● Attorney General Jay Nixon won the governorship in a landslide. Yet Democrats lost seats in the Missouri Senate and didn’t make a significant dent in the Republican majority in the House.

● Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder won re-election despite being sandwiched on the ballot between two incumbents — Nixon and Secretary of State Robin Carnahan — who won handily.

● State Rep. Ed Robb, R-Columbia, was ousted by Democrat Chris Kelly, and state Sen. Chuck Graham, D-Columbia, got his proverbial pink slip from voters who preferred Republican Kurt Schaefer.

As the post-election haze dissipates, Nixon and Republicans in the General Assembly are going to be involved in a very intriguing dance over the next couple of years. The question is whether it’ll be a coordinated tango or a frantic and bloody slam dance.

There are two lines of thought: On the one hand, Nixon will have a difficult — if not impossible — time shoving through agenda items without compromise with Republicans. With a budget situation that could require cuts in certain governmental services, it could be tough to sell lawmakers on the idea of increasing expenditures to accommodate restoration of Medicaid cuts or building a program to help students go to some colleges for free.

Yet if Republicans want to get anything passed, they will have to craft legislation that is suitable to Nixon. They’ll also have to potentially mollify Democrats, who could easily convince Nixon to wield the veto pen.

Nixon’s victory also means that prevalent issues in recent legislative sessions — abortion restrictions, tuition tax credits, attempts to mandate photo IDs at the polls and pushes to change the Missouri Non-Partisan Court Plan — are nonstarters. Those bills could still surface, but it’ll likely be symbolic without enough votes to override Nixon’s veto in the House.

By the way, Nixon told a teleconference this week he wasn’t going to focus on vetoing things. Instead, he wants legislators to craft legislation he can sign.

It’s probably too early to handicap who will face off against Nixon, Schaefer or Kelly in upcoming elections. But if the next election were held today, Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder likely would be the man to oppose Nixon. He’s now won two tough statewide races and has the ability to raise quite a bit of money. He’s also the only remaining Republican in a statewide elected office.

It is strange, but deciding not to run for governor might have been one of the smarter moves of Kinder’s political career. Not only did he win re-election, but he now has an opportunity to assume the primary leadership role in his party.

Kinder said Thursday he has not even thought about his next contest.

DON’T LOOK BACK

The contest to become Senate majority leader also took a somewhat unpredictable turn.

Sen. Kevin Engler, R-Farmington, won the spot in a battle with Sens. Gary Nodler, R-Joplin, and Scott Rupp, R-Wentzville. The outcome was surprising because Engler said he only recently entered the contest.

Engler was one of the few Republican senators to vote against the Medicaid cuts in 2005. Asked whether that meant Nixon’s bid to rescind those cuts would get a better reception in the Senate, Engler said: “Oh, health care is always in the top five issues, so I can’t believe that we” wouldn’t talk about that.

Senate Majority Leader Charlie Shields was easily elected Senate president pro tem. He replaces outgoing Senate chief Michael Gibbons, who is term-limited. And as expected, Sen. Victor Callahan, D-Independence, was elected Democratic floor leader. Graham’s defeat ensured that Callahan’s march to that position would be uncontested.

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Jason Rosenbaum covers Missouri politics for the Tribune. He can be reached at (573) 815-1724 or jrosenbaum@columbiatribune.com. 

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