Gerik Parmele photo

Steve Gaw and Rep. Judy Baker, D-Columbia, background, participate in a July 11 forum for Democratic primary candidates for the Ninth Congressional District seat.

Political observers were surprised at the Democratic primary success of state Rep. Judy Baker in rural portions of the Ninth Congressional District, a win with possible implications for the general election.

The result was jarring to some because former House Speaker Steve Gaw centered much of his campaign on his rural roots. He used rustic imagery in campaign materials, citing his background of growing up in Randolph County as a selling point. The message was that the former legislator and Public Service Commission member would offer practical solutions to legislative bureaucracy.

But voters Tuesday showed the strategy was flawed.

Baker, a two-term lawmaker from Columbia, bested Gaw in several rural northeast and Central Missouri counties. She also won in Franklin and St. Charles counties, two Republican-leaning population centers in metro St. Louis, as well as in Callaway County, where Gaw lives.

Marvin Overby, a political science professor at the University of Missouri, pointed to a couple of factors in the outcome. For one, he said, Marion County Presiding Commissioner Lyndon Bode competed in rural areas with Gaw. For another, low turnout by voters might have affected Gaw’s race.

"Turnout was just really light for all around the state," Overby said. "I was comparing actually the numbers from the Ninth District race this year from previous races over the decade. I think this was the lowest turnout in any of the primaries since 1998. There’s just not as much energy out there as there has been in previous elections."

Baker said Tuesday night that campaigning in rural areas outside Columbia helped her defeat Gaw, Bode and former Sen. Ken Jacob, D-Columbia. "We contacted and visited voters," Baker said, "and I think that is what people are responding to. They liked to be listened to, and that was a very big cornerstone of our campaign."

Roy Temple, a pollster who worked with Gaw, said Baker deserves credit for putting together a "solid campaign." In addition to Baker’s "enormous advantage" of being the top candidate from Columbia, Temple cited the expense of getting out a message in parts of the district. "Unless you’re on St. Louis television, which nobody really was in any meaningful way, voters just never heard from you. They might not even know you exist," he said.

Jeremiah Levine, Gaw’s campaign manager, said Gaw’s campaign didn’t communicate much through purchased media in rural areas. He also said Baker used direct mail effectively - something Gaw didn’t do in rural areas.

As Baker lays out a strategy for her fall campaign against Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer, she has a pledge from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which announced yesterday she would be part of its "Red to Blue" program that could provide organizational support for her campaign.

Luetkemeyer, of St. Elizabeth, showed Tuesday he also has strength across the district by vanquishing four opponents, winning big in Miller County, his home turf. Observers see him running strong in GOP areas south of Interstate 70 such as Gasconade, Osage and Miller counties. The former state tourism director noted he also won by a strong margin in Boone County.

"I think this is a business community, and I think they understand that I’ve got a business background," Luetkemeyer said. "In spite of the fact that Columbia dominates Boone County, there’s a lot of rural area here. And I think I networked very well with the rural folks in this county as well."

Another thing that could aid Luetkemeyer is that Kenny Hulshof will head the Republican ticket as the nominee for governor. Hulshof, the Ninth District congressman from Columbia, beat state Treasurer Sarah Steelman in the 25 counties that make up the district - getting as much as 90 percent of the primary vote in some areas.

Baker could be assisted by the presidential campaign of Barack Obama, who won Boone County Democrats by a landslide during Missouri’s presidential primary in February.

Overby said the presence of Hulshof and Obama on the November ballot will have an intriguing effect in Boone County.

"We’re going to see some interesting tension in the way people vote here, because your guess would be that Obama is going to carry Boone County and your guess is that Judy Baker’s going to carry Boone County. You might guess that Hulshof would carry Boone County as well," he said. "But you’re going to have different allegiances tugging at people as they vote."

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